Trend Forecasting

Details of a first-of-its-kind space weather emergency preparedness exercise conducted in May 2024 to test the U.S. response to a cataclysmic solar storm were released in spring 2025. Things didn’t go well. On April 28, 2025 (less than a month ago from the time of writing), a still-unknown incident caused the entirety of Europe’s Iberian Peninsula to crash into darkness. Any device not powered by batteries was rendered useless, transport systems were immobile, stranding countless people across the continent. It was described as the “blackout of the century” by Space.com, and may have been caused by a still-impending threat from our cosmos: solar storms. Somewhat bizarrely, almost a year to-the-day prior, the U.S. conducted its first ever space weather simulation exercise, the details of which were released in mid-April 2025. (MORE NEWS: Mainstream Media Finally Wakes Up To Massive Geological Threat To US) The exercise ran from May 8-9 and was designed to simulate and review our nation’s (specifically, our government’s) preparedness for a “severe space weather event,” such as a massive solar storm that interferes dangerously with Earth’s magnetic field. Interagency coordination, response protocols, and communications throughout industry and various critical infrastructure were all put through the test, which included: Intense radiation exposure to satellites, astronauts and commercial aviation Radio communications outages and disruptions Loss of functionality or degraded performance of GPS for precision navigation and timing Reduced ability to communicate with and track on-orbit satellites Local- to regional-scale power outages, affecting railways and even pipelines The hypothetical scenario was adapted from the Department of Homeland Security’s Exercise and Evaluation Program (HSEEP), included more than 25 federal, state, tribal, and local agencies, and ran participants through a “series of solar events with wide-ranging effects on Earth as well as the region between Earth and the moon.” What Happens During A Major Solar Storm? When the sun releases huge bursts of energy, particles, and other materials, we call it a “solar storm.” They range in scale from A (weakest) to X (strongest), according to NASA. The scale works similarly to the Richter scale, with each class adding a 10-fold increase in energy. Along with the aforementioned impacts to core modern technologies, such as GPS and other navigation systems, there are significant threats to aviation and satellites when they’re bombarded by these solar materials. And if there are threats to aviation and satellites, there are threats to those of us here on the ground. If you’ve a spare 15 minutes or so, we highly recommend watching this excellent episode of “The Why Files” to learn more about the potential impacts of minor and major solar storms. You can also listen to the podcast version by clicking here. How Significant Is The Threat of Solar Storms On the extremely biased “Modern Memo Scale of Danger,” solar storms are around an 8/10. Though not as physically destructive as an asteroid impact or nuclear apocalypse, there is a very real chance an extreme solar storm could cause the latter through disruptions to our nuclear facilities. The largest solar event known to science occurred around 12,350 B.C. (which oddly coordinates closely with the Younger Dryas, right at the end of our last major Ice Age), and was so massive its discovery “expands the timeline and intensity of known solar activity and sets a new upper boundary for such solar phenomena,” according to a 2025 study detailed by Astrobiology. These massive storms are called “Miyake events,” and increase the normal production of various isotopes such as radiocarbon (14C) in the atmosphere. The event and post-event impacts of solar storms on the scale of Miyake events are myriad, ranging from mass civil disruption, loss of life, infrastructural collapse, to all-out civilization reset. It all depends on how a storm impacts our energy grid. But again, we simply don’t know enough about them to know more than the major risks to our grid and modern lifestyles. “Understanding its scale is critical for evaluating the risks posed by future solar storms to modern infrastructure like satellites, power grids, and communication systems,” writes co-author Kseniia Golubenko. (MORE NEWS: Best Crops To Grow During A Nuclear Apocalypse, According To Scientists) “Grid failure is a real and imminent threat, a devastatingly deadly occurrence leading to life-threatening shortages of heat, food, and water. If protective measures are not taken, we will experience catastrophic failures leaving citizens in states of starvation, death, destruction, and darkness for months,” says the minds behind the documentary “Grid Down, Power Up.” Solar storms are uncontrollable, but we have more options to mitigate their impact than we would a major earthquake. Right now, we’re at our solar maximum. This is a time when our sun emits the most energy during its roughly 11-year solar cycle. If we’re going to be hit with a solar storm capable of disrupting all technologies across North America, it’ll be soon. What Did The Exercise Reveal? Here are the key findings, according to the National Environmental Satellite, Data, And Information Service (NESDIS): Demonstrated the need for better coordination to produce meaningful and understandable Space Weather notifications that are useful for operations and clearly describe the potential impacts on critical infrastructure. Emphasized the importance of a whole-of-government approach, especially federal-regional-state level coordination and awareness, while also highlighting existing gaps that need filling to ensure streamlined and rapid response. Provided opportunities to understand current technology limitations and discussed possibilities for improved forecasting capabilities, including suggestions to place spacecraft farther upstream to provide earlier warning of impending storms. Underscored the need for a national space weather education campaign to raise awareness of risks and improve public understanding. Demonstrated the need for a more coordinated and streamlined communications plan with the public through federal, state, and local agencies, and on social media, with particular emphasis on impact rather than technical science. Served as an exemplary event demonstrating the benefits of a whole-of-government exercise to prepare for scientifically complex threats. We absolutely agree that this was an exemplary event and exercise, but will we see any actual action…