GOP

Minnesota Republicans delivered a genuine primary night upset Tuesday, choosing state House Speaker Lisa Demuth as their nominee for governor over Trump-endorsed MyPillow founder Mike Lindell — setting up a general election matchup against Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar in a race Republicans see as one of their best pickup opportunities in a state that hasn’t elected a GOP governor in more than two decades. A Come-From-Behind Win The Associated Press called the race for Demuth just before midnight, with her holding more than 43% of the vote to Lindell’s less than 33% once the count was finalized. That represented a real reversal of fortune: Lindell had appeared to be leading in the limited public polling available heading into Election Day, and he had touted President Trump’s endorsement heavily in the campaign’s final stretch. “I have an advantage over everyone up here,” Lindell told supporters at an event just days before the primary. “I can call up and work with the President of the United States.” That advantage ultimately wasn’t enough. Notably, Demuth won the nomination despite not having the backing of either major GOP power center in the race — she’d been passed over by the state Republican Party’s own endorsement process, which instead backed businessman Kendall Qualls back in May, and she lacked Trump’s presidential endorsement as well, which went to Lindell. Demuth stayed in the race regardless, citing what she described as irregularities in the party’s convention voting process, and built a coalition strong enough to overcome both organizational disadvantages. Qualls, for his part, conceded graciously as Demuth’s lead widened on election night, congratulating her for “earning the support of the Republican primary voters.” What Sank Lindell’s Campaign Lindell’s defeat wasn’t simply a story of Demuth outperforming expectations — it also reflected real friction within his own campaign in its closing weeks. According to NBC News, attacks on Lindell from fellow Republicans, including pointed questions about his state residency raised publicly by the chairman of the Minnesota Republican Party, meaningfully hampered his campaign heading into the final stretch, as segments of the state GOP actively worked to consolidate support behind an alternative. Lindell, the report noted, has become better known nationally in recent years as an outspoken election conspiracy theorist than as a Minnesota political figure, a reputation that appears to have created real vulnerabilities even within a Republican primary electorate generally sympathetic to Trump’s endorsement. As of Tuesday night, Lindell had not formally conceded the race, continuing to raise claims about anomalies in the vote count even as the Associated Press, NBC News, CBS News, and other major outlets all called the race decisively in Demuth’s favor. Why the Seat Is Open in the First Place The race to replace term-limited Democratic Gov. Tim Walz has been shaped heavily by controversy well before Tuesday’s primary. Walz, who had originally planned to seek a third term, abruptly announced in January that he would not run for reelection after facing mounting scrutiny over allegations that his administration ignored repeated warnings about social aid fraud at daycare centers across the state — a scandal Minnesota Department of Human Services employees say they flagged internally long before it became public. Demuth referenced the episode directly on the campaign trail, blaming what she called “incompetent Democrat control” for the fraud cases and pointing to her own record establishing a Fraud Prevention Agency Oversight Committee while leading the state House. Klobuchar entered the governor’s race only a few weeks after Walz’s withdrawal, adding her name to a Democratic field that included four sitting U.S. senators nationally seeking governorships this cycle. She easily secured her party’s nomination Tuesday, defeating lesser-known primary opponents Kobey Layne and businessman Bill Gates Jr. — no relation to the Microsoft co-founder. Demuth’s Case to Voters Demuth, 59, has spent the current legislative session presiding over a state House that’s nearly evenly split between the two parties, and she leaned into that experience on the campaign trail, emphasizing her record of working across the aisle in a divided chamber as evidence she can govern effectively in a purple state. Speaking to reporters after her win was projected Tuesday night, she struck an optimistic tone about the race ahead. “This is our opportunity to really move Minnesota forward, and I’m excited about that,” Demuth said. An Uphill Fight, But a Real One Even with a clean primary win now behind her, Demuth faces a genuinely difficult path in November. Minnesota hasn’t elected a Republican governor since 2002, and the state has trended Democratic in recent presidential cycles — Kamala Harris carried it by roughly four percentage points in the last presidential election, and Trump has never won the state in any of his three runs for the White House. Klobuchar, a fixture in Minnesota politics since her election to the Senate in 2007, enters the general election with substantial name recognition and a well-established statewide fundraising network. That said, Republicans see real opportunity in this particular race that goes beyond simple partisan trend lines. The daycare fraud scandal that ended Walz’s political career gives Demuth a concrete, non-abstract line of attack against continued Democratic control of the governor’s office, and an open seat — rather than a Democratic incumbent seeking reelection — typically presents a more favorable opportunity for the out-of-power party. Trump’s team, despite backing the losing candidate in the primary, is likely to engage heavily in the general election regardless, given how closely national Republicans are watching Minnesota as a genuine midterm target after Lindell’s defeat scrambled expectations about the state of the race. The Bigger Picture for Trump’s Political Capital Tuesday’s result also carries a broader signal about the limits of a Trump endorsement within his own party. Lindell’s loss, despite the president’s public backing, suggests Minnesota Republican primary voters were willing to prioritize a candidate with concrete legislative experience and a clean campaign presence over one carrying more national baggage — even one with the president’s explicit support. Whether that dynamic reflects a uniquely Minnesota set…